Here…we…go…again. NFL training camps have begun opening across America and with it means another fantasy football season approaches. Thus, over the next four weeks, I plan on previewing every position in order to get you prepared for your fantasy draft.
Today, I begin with tight-ends (TE) and although the position might lack some depth, there is still some serious value that can be found later in your draft. Some of these guys have moved on elsewhere (Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron to name a few), while others seemed to poise to break out (Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and Josh Hill…again to name a few).
So let’s sort through the mess that is the tight-end position and breakdown the best and worst choices at the position for this upcoming fantasy season.
*ADP = Average Draft Position (were all obtained from NFL.com)
My Predicted TOP 25 Fantasy TEs for 2015
#1. Rob Gronkowski – New England Patriots (ADP: 13.54 – 2nd Round)
#2. Martellus Bennett – Chicago Bears (ADP: 79.64 – 8th Round)
#3. Greg Olsen – Carolina Panthers (ADP: 53.98 – 6th Round)
#4. Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 60.21 – 7th Round)
#5. Julius Thomas – Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 60.71 – 7th Round)
#6. Jimmy Graham – Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 30.67 – 4th Round)
#7. Kyle Rudolph – Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 149.57 – 15th Round)
#8. Jason Witten – Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 121.91 – 13th Round)
#9. Jordan Cameron – Miami Dolphins (ADP: 126.44 – 13th Round)
#10. Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 144.76 – 15th Round)
#11. Dwayne Allen – Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 68.89 – 7th Round)
#12. Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 150.22 – 16th Round)
#13. Josh Hill – New Orleans Saints (ADP: 149.63 – 15th Round)
#14. Owen Daniels – Denver Broncos (ADP: 138.22 – 14th Round)
#15. Antonio Gates – San Diego Chargers (ADP: 83.14 – 9th Round)
#16. Vernon Davis – San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 131.83 – 14th Round)
#17. Tyler Eifert – Cincinnati Bengals (ADP: 150.13 – 16th Round)
#18. Heath Miller – Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: 146.04 – 15th Round)
#19. Jordan Reed – Washington Redskins (ADP: 150.68 – 16th Round)
#20. Charles Clay – Buffalo Bills (ADP: 114.76 – 12th Round)
Speaking of the Top 5…
#1. Rob Gronkowski – New England Patriots (ADP: 13.54 – 2nd Round)
This is literally the easiest decision. I don’t care who is throwing Gronk the ball this year. It could be JaMarcus Russell or Johnny Manziel for all I cared. As long as you got Josh McDaniels as the offensive coordinator (OC) in New England calling the plays (plus Bill Belicheck roaming the sidelines), this Patriots’ offence/team will remain a force in the AFC East. Thus (and I say this with an empathic Gronk-like spike) Rob Gronkowski is the undisputed #1 TE in fantasy football. He remains the King of Westeros, even without Tywin Lannister to back him up.
And who is Tywin in this analogy? None other than Tom Brady of course.
Yes, it cannot be understated that the suspension to Tom Brady (which was recently upheld by the NFL at 4 games) will have some kind of negative impact on Gronk. But potential fantasy owners should not be swayed by Brady’s “likely” suspension as it relates to Gronk. This is the same Gronk who posted 30.30 more fantasy points than the next leading TE last season (about 2.0 pts per game more than any other TE). This is the same Gronk who has has caught more TDs than anyone else (except Dez Bryant) over the last 5 seasons, despite missing 15 out of a possible 80 games over that stretch.
Moreover, its worth reminding fantasy owners that when Brady was last out of the starting lineup in 2008, Matt Cassel stepped in admirably, leading the Patriots to an 11-5 record. Cassel also finished 8th in passing yards amongst QBs that season (thanks in part to the tutelage of Josh McDaniels, who was the OC at the time). More importantly, Wes Welker didn’t miss a beat as the Pats #1 inside option as the slot receiver (Welker was 2nd in the league in receptions that year). And although Gronk is not a slot receiver, in many ways he has filled that void in McDaniels’ offence once occupied by Welker inside. So don’t worry about Jimmy Garoppolo tossing the rock in New England. He will find plenty of Gronk.
My only real concern for Gronkowski (aside from his health) is his ADP of 13.54. A high 2nd round pick is a bit rich for me to draft a guy that finished 39th overall in fantasy points in 2014. I would recommend you try and wait to grab this guy either late in the 2nd or preferably in the 3rd, given that players like Dez Bryant, Jeremy Hill, CJ Anderson and Jordy Nelson all have a tendency to be available at this point…and they should each outscore Gronk this season.
#2. Martellus Bennett – Chicago Bears (ADP: 79.64 – 8th Round)
Call it the first surprise of my list, but Martellus Bennett is not only coming off a year where he set career-highs in catches (90), yards (916) and touchdowns (six); he also sees the arrival of John Fox and co. fresh from their Denver excursion. Coming with Fox as the Bears’ new offensive coordinator Adam Gase, who is coming off helping another tight-end named Julius Thomas become an elite-level tight-end.
Now part of that will of course have been because of Peyton Manning, but I refuse to believe that Gase didn’t play a part in Thomas’ development. And knowing what Gase now has in Chicago, you would have to expect him to get Bennett frequently involved in the offence (especially in the red-zone, where Thomas caught 24 TDs in 27 games over the last two seasons). There is also no more Brandon Marshall to fight for targets with in Chi-Town. The Bears traded Jay Cutler‘s best bud Marshall to the loveable New York Jets. So I would expect plenty targets geared in Bennett’s and Alshon Jeffery‘s direction, despite the Bears’ new first round pick Kevin White and the newly-acquired Eddie Royal.
It also helps that Bennett has been unhappy with his current four-year, $20.4 million deal. Despite the fear of a hold out, Bennett showed up to training camp reportedly “not worried about his contract“. If he wants to up his dough, he will have to (and be motivated to) produce big numbers in order to merit a raise. So keep an eye on Bennett. He is well worth jumping up to grab either in the 6th or 7th round. This is also a guy who has finished amongst the top-12 TEs in fantasy over the last three seasons. That’s what I like to call a safe bet.
#3. Greg Olsen – Carolina Panthers (ADP: 53.98 – 6th Round)
You got me. I’ll admit, I have never been a big fan of the big man originally from the “U”, but it’s hard not to fall in love with what Greg Olsen did last season, and his potential for this upcoming year.
For starters, let’s take you back to the end of the 2014 season, when Olsen quietly set career-highs in catches (84), targets (122) and yards (1008) all while tacking on six TDs. No other tight-end, aside from Rob Gronkowski, tallied more yards. No other tight-end (NOT even Gronk) drew a larger percentage of his team’s targets than Olsen’s 22.4 percent. Olsen was targeted early and often. I would expect more of the same this year.
Yes, there are some who will point to the addition of second-round pick WR David Funchess out of Michigan as a reason why Olsen’s stock might decline. And it might be with reason, but consider this: for the 2nd consecutive year Olsen led the Panthers in receptions (this despite the presence of Steve Smith Sr. in 2013 and the emergence of then-rookie Kelvin Benjamin in 2014), he has finished amongst the top-7 TEs in fantasy for the last three seasons and he hasn’t missed a game since 2007.
So I wouldn’t worry. Olsen is as consistent as they come, not too mention clearly one of Cam Newton‘s favourite targets (do I need to remind you that 22.4 percent of Newton’s pass attempts were headed in Olsen’s direction?). Newton is also healthy. Olsen is also in a contract year, fighting to prove he is worth the dollars. Put all of that together and Olsen is well worth taking in the 6th round. I would even suggest grabbing him in the 5th round, if you can, given the lack of depth at the TE position and the fact that the man is that consistent.
#4. Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 60.21 – 7th Round)
You can call Travis Kelce the next big thing at the TE position. The man’s stock is rising faster than Apple’s stock in the mid 2000s. And trust me when I say it is rightfully deserved.
Kelce’s playing time was often limited during the first 10 weeks of the season. It was Week 10 where things began to change, specifically when Anthony Fasano got hurt. Just to give you an idea of what I mean: between Weeks 6-9 Kelce played only 54.9 percent of the snaps (when Fasano was healthy) but against the Bills in Week 10 that increased to 66.1 percent. And only grew over the course of the season. During those final seven weeks, Kelce upped his snaps to 86.6 percent of all the Chiefs’ offensive snaps.
Now, why is this at all important or significant? Well, Kelce finished as the #8 TE in fantasy last season despite not becoming a true full-time player until closer to season’s end. Imagine what the kid could do if he played every snap?
Well that appears to be the plan in KC. Andy Reid has asked his young TE to bulk up and gain 15 pounds, and play at 265, which was his weight at the University of Cincinnati (it was last reported in June that he was at 255 lbs). And although the gain in weight might be solely for protection (aka to make him a more effective blocker) and might even make him a touch slower, being on the field more frequently should hypothetically lead to more opportunities for Kelce.
In addition, Kelce was a model of efficiency. According to Pro Football Focus, Kelce caught 66-of-71 catchable passes last season. QB Alex Smith threw in Kelce’s direction 80 times, with 71 of them being on-target. I would expect that number to increase this season, despite the addition of WR Jeremy Maclin from the Eagles. Smith twice helped Vernon Davis finish within the top-three fantasy tight-ends, and he could very well end up doing it again with Kelce. As a short-yardage specialist, I doubt Smith will take many more chances down the field with Maclin. If anything, Maclin should help open up the middle of the field for Kelce (given that the Chiefs will finally have a wideout that defences have to respect, and one that might actually catch a touchdown pass for the Chiefs). All in all, Kelce is gaining confidence (and demanding the football in camp). With Fasano gone, Kelce is the undisputed number one TE in KC. And you should feel confident drafting him. I would jump up and get this guy in the 6th round if you can, before someone else can snags him.
#5. Julius Thomas – Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 60.71 – 7th Round)
Alright, alright, I know. I like a Jaguar player to fit somewhere in my top-5 and not Jimmy Graham. It’s not that I don’t think Jimmy Graham isn’t a talent, but I do take issue with the fact that he is playing on a team whose identity is to RUN THE FOOTBALL. In Jacksonville, however, Julius Thomas is the man and arguably the team’s best player. The Jags are a team still searching their identity on both sides of the ball, and I think a major part of that on offence will undoubtedly run through Thomas (I mean they just payed the guy $46 million over the next 5 years, $24 million guaranteed…I think he’ll catch a pass or two to justify it).
Reports out of Jags’ camp says Jacksonville will feature several two-tight end formations. It seems as if OC Greg Olson has no intention of putting Thomas in a three-point stance to hold the edge (the latter will be a job for Mercedes Lewis). Rather, it seems Olson wants to play to Thomas’ strengths and split him off the formation, the same way things were done in Denver with Peyton Manning. I wouldn’t also be surprised if Thomas became QB Blake Bortles‘ favourite target. Sure the Jags have a promising young receiver in Allen Robinson, but he hasn’t developed the same kind of success that Thomas has as a pass-catcher.
Over the past two seasons, Thomas has caught the 4th most touchdown passes (24 TDs) and his 12 TDs last season were the best amongst all starting TEs (tied with Gronkowski and Antonio Gates). I would bet my money that he won’t hit that mark again this season, but I still think he produces more than most of the other TEs, including Graham. It’s not that I think Jimmy Graham isn’t capable, I think he will be a top-10 TE, but he won’t match his production in New Orleans. Graham has also been on the record saying he will be blocking “75 percent of the time”.
This is definitely a hyperbole. An exaggeration. But the point that is being driven home is the Seahawks’ love to run the football and will continue to. He is also still reportedly working out the “chemistry kinks” with his new QB Russell Wilson. Put all of that together, I’ll take the chance on Thomas before I do with Graham. Graham is currently going in the 4th round, which is WAY too high for my liking. He might have a higher ceiling than Thomas but he is too much of a risk (need I remind you that Graham often plays at less than 100%). I’d take Thomas in the 6th round. I believe his current ADP in the 7th round accurately represents his value.
Best Value Picks
#7. Kyle Rudolph – Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 149.57 – 15th Round) and #10. Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 144.76 – 15th Round)
If you saw my list from last season, this is going to look familiar.
Well if I’m actually being honest with myself, it is identical. But it’s hard not to love two TEs that have massive upside that are currently going in the 15th round.
First, Kyle Rudolph, the ex-Notre Dame star who doesn’t seem capable of staying healthy. Yes, he has missed 16 games over the last four seasons with the Vikings. But he has also scored on 12.8 percent of his career receptions, a rate that would have topped Jimmy Graham last season. His OC Norv Turner has a history of turning TE and into stars (including Antonio Gates and Jordan Cameron) and as long as Rudolph stays healthy I can’t see why he wouldn’t be able to follow in their footsteps. Rudolph is incredibly athletic and has great hands. Furthermore, Teddy Bridgewater is by-far the most efficient quarterback Rudolph has ever played with (remember Christian Ponder or Matt Cassel in those beautiful purple Vikings’ jerseys…I mean at least they looked good throwing INTs). To illustrate my point, during last night’s 1st preseason game, Bridgewater completed 5-of-6 for 44 yards. He targeted Rudolph twice, both of which he caught for 22 yards, the most amongst WRs and TEs taking snaps with the first team.
With consistency at the QB position and Rudolph making changes to his off-season routine to try and stay healthy, I’ll take a chance on a guy that I can get as late as the 15th round. My recommendation is to try and grab him sooner (like the 12th or 13th round). He is a huge bargain that late in the draft, given his TE1 upside.
The second TE I like at a bargain is Zach Ertz from the Eagles. Full disclaimer though, this is one guy you’ll have to monitor over the preseason to evaluate his snaps. Ertz’s biggest problem over the last few seasons has been staying on the field, not because he hasn’t been healthy but due to his inefficiencies as a blocker (and his teammate TE Brent Celek‘s success blocking). During his rookie campaign in 2013, Ertz caught 36 passes for 469 yards (including 4 TDs) while playing only 41 percent of the offensive snaps. Last season, Ertz increased those numbers to 58 receptions for 702 yards (including 3 TDs). The reason for the uptick? Well he frankly played more offensive snaps last year, up 9% from 2013. So to make this as simple as possible, if Ertz plays more snaps he should catch more passes. He graded out as sixth amongst tight-ends in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades. He spent his offseason increasing his power, working with Hall of Fame line coach Hudson Houck in San Diego, and has even done some MMA to try and improve his understanding of leverage and how to use his hands while blocking.
All in all, it seems like he should have done enough to merit additional snaps, but Chip Kelly doesn’t seem to agree. So far Ertz has been constantly working with the second-team offence at training camp. Either way, I would monitor this during the preseason. If Ertz can get plenty of first-team snaps during the preseason, that would be a positive sign. He is an incredibly talented pass-catching TE. With the loss of Jeremy Maclin, those targets will have to go elsewhere and Ertz should help in that department. Currently going in the 15th round, there is huge value in trying to grab Ertz anywhere between the 12th and 13th rounds. Along with Rudolph, he has massive TE1 upside.
Buyers Beware:
#11. Dwayne Allen – Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 68.89 – 7th Round) and #15. Antonio Gates – San Diego Chargers (ADP: 83.14 – 9th Round)
Both of these TEs were top-10 guys last season, hell Antonio Gates even caught the most TDs passes amongst TEs (tied with Thomas and Gronk at 12 TDs). But 2014 is now in our rear-view mirror, and unfortunately for Gates, he will begin this season with a four-game suspension for violating the league’s Performance-Enhancing Drugs (PEDs) policy. Gates will have you believe that he never “knowingly” ingested any PED. But I don’t find it a coincidence that at the age of 35, Gates had one of this best years statistically and tested positive for a banned substance. It’s way to ironic that the two should happen at the same time. Furthermore, even before Gates got suspended, there was plenty of talk about Gates’ snaps being further reduced. Even by Gates himself. He did eventually clarify that he still wants the ball and that he wants less time on the field blocking and more time on the field catching passes.
But who doesn’t want that Antonio? Fact is the team has been pumping Ladarius Green‘s tires all summer, even before Gates’ suspension. Coach Mike McCoy went as far as to suggest “we need to use him more“. Green was limited to only 21.1 snaps per game or 30.9 percent of the offensive snaps. This was despite Gates seeing over 200 fewer snaps himself last season. Nevertheless, there are big plans for Green. OC Frank Reich has even gone on the record saying this should be Green’s “most productive year” (again, this was said BEFORE Gates was suspended). He has been pegged as Gates’ replacement since Day 1. He will fill in for Gates, while the future Hall of Famer serves his month-long suspension. When he comes back, who knows what will happen. But keep in mind that both Gates and Green are in contract years. And if Green truly is the future, the team will not only want to test him out over those first four weeks, but if he succeeds, expect him to cut him into Gates’ playing time and this to be Gates’ swan song in San Diego. I’d rather wait for a Rudolph or Ertz in later rounds, than take a chance on Gates in the seventh round. If you do draft him though, I would recommend hand-cuffing him with Green.
Meanwhile, Dwayne Allen was no slouch himself last year in Indianapolis (he finished 13th amongst TE in fantasy). With the help of Andrew Luck, the big man seemed only capable of catching touchdown passes (as he finished with 8 TDs). But I would expect that number to decline from last season. Not only is Allen have to fight for love at the TE position with teammate Coby Fleener (Luck’s teammate from Stanford who finished 6th amongst fantasy TEs), but the team has gone out of it’s way to add plenty of weapons that will negatively effect Allen’s fantasy stock. I mean where should I begin? At the wideout position, they added Andre Johnson (yes, the same Andre Johnson from the Houston Texans) and drafted the speedy, Phillip Dorsett (who is drawing rave reviews). They also brought in Frank Gore from the 49ers to run the football. All of which, might I add, are former players from the “U” (Colts’ Coach Chuck Pagano clearly loves Miami University).
But moving past Pagano’s affection for the “U”, the addition of these weapons to the already embarrassing list of riches Luck already had (T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, etc.) means there are too many mouths to feed for me to like Allen’s chances at having a career year. I mean Allen already has had his fair share of struggles thus far in his career. In 34 pro games, including the post-season, Allen has caught more than four passes ONLY THREE TIMES. Do the math. That means less than 10% of the time he catches the ball more than four times in a game. And with all the weapons the Colts’ have added this offseason, do you honestly think that is going to change? No. Neither do I. Don’t take the chance on Allen in the 7th round, it isn’t worth it.
Rookie Watch:
#27. Maxx Williams – Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 150.09 – 16th Round)
Although he didn’t crack my top-20, there are some reasons to be optimistic about rookie Maxx Williams. For starters, the former starting TE in Baltimore, Dennis Pitta, hasn’t even been cleared to practice yet (he has been watching practice in shorts and a T-shirt). Pitta had his second major-hip surgery last season, which led some to question whether he would ever come back. And given Pitta’s uncertain status, it was no surprise that Baltimore elected to jump ahead of Pittsburgh in the second-round to get their guy Williams. Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome said he expected the rookie to have an immediate impact in the redzone and on third downs. It also helps that Flacco has always loved throwing to TEs (just ask Pitta) and new Ravens’ offensive coordinator Marc Trestman is coming off making Martellus Bennett look pretty good in Chicago (Bennett posted career-numbers under Trestman).
My concern, however, is no rookie TE ever seems to have an impact in their first year (need I remind you of Eric Ebron last season). To my point, it has already been reported that Williams has struggled to digest Trestman’s playbook. He hasn’t gotten off to a “fast start” at training camp causing writers in Baltimore to suggest that fans should temper their expectations. There is no doubt the kid is uber-talented. He regularly hurdled opponents while at the University of Minnesota (I wasn’t kidding, check it out). He averaged 16.2 yards per catch over his career there. He has the skill-set to be a great pass-catching TE. But there remains too much risk right now. I would recommend sitting back, watch him over preseason. If he can shows signs that he is capable of being an every-day starter, he could become a serious deep-sleeper in drafts. All of this of course is also assuming Pitta doesn’t regain his starting role in the Ravens’ offence.